Does agroecosystem management mitigate historic climate impacts on dryland winter wheat yields?

Abstract Global studies that quantify climate effects on crop yields using top‐down spatial frameworks are invaluable for assessing generalized world food supplies, yet do not contain the resolution necessary to identify local mediating of management. Our objectives were (a) what factors have historically affected winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) in eastern Colorado, (b) how management may mitigate impacts, and (c) potential varietal selection extremes. We paired long‐term yield data rotations varied (tillage intensity, with without fallow) robust on‐site weather data. also used from colocated variety trials investigate trade‐offs between mean ability withstand water temperature stress. Precipitation April–June was nearly as predictive full growing season precipitation. While precipitation air temperatures tightly linked this agroecosystem, more than Increases minimum May positively yields, likely because minimizing freeze damage, but did offset detrimental warmer daytime spring summer temperatures. The largest negative caused by extreme maximum June. No‐till fallow maximized yields. Low‐ high‐yielding varieties differ responses high temperatures, suggesting future advancements heat stress resistance will necessarily require trade‐offs. Climate pressures producers balance goals maintaining soil cover, underscoring difficulty identifying win–win adaptations.